Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
